Wednesday, March 19, 2008

New Polling Numbers

The NPR newsblog yesterday reported:

Poll: Obama Speech Doesn't Slow Clinton Momentum

The Gallup Daily Tracking poll shows that for the first time in a month, Sen. Hillary Clinton has opened up a statistically significant lead over Sen. Barack Obama in the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. Today's poll shows Clinton with a 49% to 42% lead over Obama in national Democratic voters' presidential nomination preference.


My answer to this is very simple:

This struggle is like a swing or pendulum. It is now swinging a little bit towards Mrs. Hillary RODHAM Clinton. At this point she needs to draw attention to any news to keep her delegates from marching to the other side. In the longer term, do these polls really hurt O'Bama? Probably no. It is a general consensus as Florida AND Michigan will not re-vote the primaries, that Hillary RODHAM Clinton will not be able to catch up on the delegate lead. Let's ask Mark Penn to show us some "statistically significant" data on that.

But then again team Billary keeps pointing out that it is not the numbers or delegates that are important, but that 'electability' is the issue. Well, need we remind them that George W. Bush won Florida on a by 576 votes and thus winning Florida and the presidency in 2000 ? Yes, dear numbers and delegates do matter.

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